Updated on October 17, 2015, 12:00 PM (IST): Conditions are still unfavourable for formation of any cyclone this October. This is supposed to be a rare event. In last 15 years, only 2009 did not witness any cyclonic storm. It is to be noted that even 2009 was a strong El Nino year. And, in the year 2010 three back to back storms developed in this month.
The Indian seas are as such very unpredictable. The ferociousness of the storms vary from year to year.
Updated on October 16, 2015, 11:40 AM (IST): No cyclones likely in October 2015
In 2014, it was Hudhud while in 2013 Phailin. But, this year no cyclones are likely in the month of October.
The Indian Seas are one of the deadliest basins for severe cyclones in the world. The two seasons for formation of cyclonic storms are pre-Monsoon (April and May) and post-Monsoon (October to December).
The frequency of storms is generally more in the Bay of Bengal, in comparison to the Arabian Sea, but severity takes an almost equal toll on either side. In the post-Monsoon season, 62% of the tropical cyclones strike the East Coast of India and 25% drift away to Myanmar and Bangladesh. 13% of Cyclones dissipate into the sea due to cold waters, strong wind shear or if they come in proximity to the equator.
In the month of October, the entire East Coast comprising of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal, possess the risk of tropical storms. Andhra Pradesh bears the brunt of cyclones in November and Tamil Nadu in December.
During the last two years, the East Coast of India had to bear the brunt of a super cyclone (Phailin) and a very severe cyclone (Hudhud). This year so far, we have not seen any sign of a tropical cyclone building up in the Indian seas. During this time of the year, the Andaman and Nicobar area is the preferred zone for origination of weather systems. Such weather systems generally experience a good sea travel and thus, have fair amount of chance for intensification.
At present, there is a cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal area. According to Skymet, this system will move away in two days’ time, possibly giving rains over Sri Lanka and Southern parts of Kerala.
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