Southwest Monsoon 2019 kick started on a poor note, with rains on the lower side. In fact, the West Coast that is one of major contributor has remained silent so far. Onset of Monsoon was also a weak one, with only light rains with few moderate showers in sight over Kerala.
As a result, the first week of Monsoon ended with a whopping countrywide cumulative rain deficiency to the tune of 42%. From June 1 to June 7, the country recorded 13.9 mm of rains against the normal of 24 mm.
Out of 36 sub-divisions, only 1 was largely deficient, 2 were excess, 5 were normal, but 11 were deficient, 15 were large deficient and 2 saw no rains at all.
Central India was deficient by 62%, followed by East and North East India at 53%, and South Peninsula by 22%. Northwest India was the only pocket to receive normal rains, with marginal deficiency of 7%.
According to weathermen, the numbers shows a very grim situation for Monsoon 2019. June sets in pace for the four-month long Monsoon season. In the coming week also, we do not expect much major rainfall activity. Northeast India would be the only savior in this case and we would see major contribution in the rains coming from there. Although rains are also expected along the West Coast but those would be not up to the mark.
There is a possibility of a cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea. The system is presently seen as a low pressure area over Southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea. With the system moving in favourable conditions, it is constantly getting more organised. With this, moist winds would concentrate over the system and thus, reducing rainfall over Indian mainland.
The system would be moving parallel to the coast at a sufficient distance, but would give rains right from Kerala to Coastal Karnataka to Konkan & Goa. However, these rains would be able to completely recover the rainfall deficiency but might improve a bit.
As per weathermen, any rainfall deficiency over 40% during the month of June rarely get recovered. As we enter into the second week of June, the normal average rainfall for the country would also increase. If we talk about numbers, over 40% rain deficiency means that country is falling short of 64 mm of rainfall that accounts for 10 days of rainfall. Skymet Weather has already predicted poor rains for June to the tune of 77%.
Any information taken from here should be credited to skymetweather.com