Skymet, India's leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company has released its monsoon forecast for 2023. Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be 'below normal' to the tune of 94% ( with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the 4- month long period from June to September. The spread of below normal being 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier foreshadow released on January 04,2023, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2023 to be sub-par and now retains the same.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, " Courtesy Triple-Dip-La Nina, southwest monsoon observed above normal/normal rainfall for the last 4 consecutive seasons. Now, La Nina has ended. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. Likelihood of El Nino is increasing and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon".
Besides El Nino, there are other factors too influencing monsoon. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino, when sufficiently strong. IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of monsoon. El Nino and IOD are likely to be 'out of phase' and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution. Second half of the season is expected to be more aberrated.
In terms of geographical prospects, Skymet expects northern and central parts of the country to be at risk of being rain deficit. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will witness inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh , the agri bowl of North India, are likely to observe less than normal rains during the 2nd half of the season.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
• 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 15% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 25% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 40% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 20% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June - 99% of LPA (LPA for June = 165.3 mm)
• 70% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 20% chance of below normal
July - 95% of LPA (LPA for July = 280.5 mm)
• 50% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 30% chance of below normal
August - 92% of LPA (LPA for August = 254.9 mm)
• 20% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 60% chance of below normal
September - 90% of LPA ( LPA for September = 167.9mm)
• 20% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 70% chance of below normal
About Skymet Weather
Skymet weather is India's largest weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company. The only private weather forecasting agency in India, Skymet Weather, was established in 2003 and has been known for providing reliable and accessible weather forecasts since then. Skymet runs its own numerical weather models and provides an array of weather-based services through data and information tools. It uses innovation to provide weather forecast to power companies, media conglomerates, farmer innovation services, agricultural input producers, and logistic operators. It has pioneered uses for long-range Monsoon weather forecasts, satellite remote sensing technologies, and unmanned aerial vehicles in India.
भारत के लिए मानसून 2023 का पूर्वानुमान
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