Withdrawal of southwest monsoon completely halted for over 10days. Line of withdrawal got stuck and still passes through Uttarkashi, Nazibabad, Agra, Gwalior, Ratlam and Bharuch. Process of withdrawal commenced on 20th September and got stalled for next one week. Monsoon has withdrawn from Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, most parts of Gujarat and small portion of Uttrakhand, West Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh. Most of the parts in general and plains of north India in particular have precariously been lashed with heavy rains, where the monsoon otherwise stands withdrawn.
Line of withdrawal is stagnant after 03rdOctober. Now, rains seems to be vacating North and Central parts for good and will return only as part of winter systems. Anticyclone is likely to establish shortly over Rajasthan, reversing the prevailing wind pattern. Accordingly, monsoon is expected to withdraw from rest of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Maharashtra and Bihar in the next 2-3 days.
Fresh weather system is likely to come up over Bay of Bengal around 16-17 October, to start with as cyclonic circulation or low pressure area. Strengthening of this system and subsequent movement closer to the east coast, may restrict further withdrawal from West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. Normally, the southwest monsoon exits from Indian sub-continent by 15th October. This is likely to be extended and go on till 3rd week of October. Cessation of southwest monsoon 2022 and arrival of northeast monsoon , may nearly coincide, as it happened last year.
