Weather Forecast September 19: Monsoon Withdrawal Likely From West Rajasthan, Fresh Low Pressure Likely in North Andaman
Representational Image: AI-Skymet
Key Takeaways:
- Southwest monsoon withdrawal conditions are becoming favourable over parts of West Rajasthan around September 19.
- A fresh low-pressure area may develop over the north Andaman Sea around September 19 and subsequently move towards the south Odisha–north Andhra Pradesh coast.
- Isolated heavy rain is possible over east Rajasthan, Gujarat, Odisha, West Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next 24 hours.
- Rainfall over much of northwest India is expected to become subdued, while unsettled weather increases over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
- Forecast Validity: Next 24 hours.
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The Weather Systems Over The Country
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Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19.
The low-pressure area over Saurashtra and the adjoining northeast Arabian Sea has become less marked. However, an upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas between 1.5 and 4.5 km above mean sea level.
The monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Phalodi, Ajmer, Guna, Satna, Jamshedpur and Digha before extending southeastwards to the northeast Bay of Bengal.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation over north Thailand extends up to 7.6 km above mean sea level. It is likely to emerge over the north Andaman Sea by the evening of September 18.
Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Andaman Sea around the evening of September 19. It may gradually intensify and move west-northwestwards towards the south Odisha–north Andhra Pradesh coast during the subsequent three to four days.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over west Uttar Pradesh up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.
A Western Disturbance persists as a cyclonic circulation over Jammu at 3.1 km above mean sea level, with a trough aloft running near 70°E to the north of 28°N at 5.8 km above mean sea level.
A trough extends from Sikkim to north Odisha across Gangetic West Bengal between 1.5 and 3.1 km above mean sea level.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over Marathwada. A trough runs from this circulation to the Gulf of Mannar across interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu at about 0.9 km above mean sea level.
Another trough extends from the east-central Arabian Sea to southwest Uttar Pradesh across Gujarat and east Rajasthan between 3.1 and 4.5 km above mean sea level.
Weather Activities During The Last 24 Hours
During the last 24 hours, rain or thundershowers occurred at many places over east Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, Gujarat Region, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Rain occurred at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, west Rajasthan, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
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Significant rainfall amounts included Jaipur at 6 cm, Alipurduar at 11 cm, Dwarka at 7 cm, Parbhani and Nancowry at 8 cm, Tiruchirappalli Airport at 6 cm, and Diamond Harbour and Gandhinagar at 5 cm.
Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells occurred over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, West Bengal, south Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and east Rajasthan.
Light to moderate rain occurred over west Uttar Pradesh, the western Himalayas, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and northeast India.
Light rain occurred over coastal Karnataka, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar and Vidarbha.
The highest maximum temperature reported over the country was 40.9°C at Nellore in Andhra Pradesh. The lowest minimum temperature over the plains was 17.0°C at Haflong in Assam.
Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal at a few places over Marathwada and Rayalaseema and at isolated places over Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and interior Karnataka.
Forecast
During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over east Rajasthan and the Gujarat Region. Thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds of 40–50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, are possible over Gujarat and east Rajasthan.
Isolated rain or thunderstorms may affect Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Haryana. Rainfall is expected to become subdued across much of northwest India thereafter.
Fairly widespread light to moderate rain is likely over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Scattered rain and thunderstorms may occur over Vidarbha. Gusty winds reaching 50–60 kmph may affect west Madhya Pradesh.
Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over Odisha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Fairly widespread rain is expected over Gangetic West Bengal.
Rainfall activity will increase over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, with isolated heavy spells and squally weather possible as the circulation approaches the north Andaman Sea.
Scattered rain and thunderstorms may affect Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Rainfall will remain active over Kerala and Lakshadweep, with isolated heavy spells possible. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may occur over Tamil Nadu.
Scattered thunderstorms are likely over Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana and interior Karnataka. Strong surface winds may affect Andhra Pradesh.
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