Image: AI-Skymet
Mumbai rains have weakened in strength and spread over the last one week. Either no rainfall or, at best, single-digit rainfall has been recorded by the main observatories at Santacruz and Colaba. The last heavy spell was registered around 28th and 29th September, followed by nearly a lull thereafter. Rains are unlikely to pick up now, and the closure of the monsoon is likely to be announced shortly.
The revised date of withdrawal of the monsoon for Mumbai is 08th October, today. In the last 24 hours, Colaba recorded 7 mm and Santacruz reported nil rainfall. Light weather activity will continue for a day or two and cease thereafter. Conditions are becoming favorable for the retreat of the monsoon from the capital city.
There are two synoptic features still promoting a small chance of patchy rains over the city and suburbs. The remnant of Severe Cyclonic Storm Shakhti, albeit very far from the coast over the west-central Arabian Sea, is still giving a push to the easterly winds on the lee side of the Konkan Coast. Also, there is a cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, off Kerala and Coastal Karnataka, in the lower levels. A north–south trough is extending from the system along the West Coast, reaching North Konkan. However, there is an inhibiting factor in the form of an anticyclone over Rajasthan, suppressing any major weather activity over Konkan and North Madhya Maharashtra.
A spell of light and brief fleeting showers may occur in the evening hours in some areas today. Another light spell, with a further reduced chance, is likely tomorrow. During this period, both the catalytic factors mentioned earlier will weaken and lose the potential to generate any weather activity. This will pave the way for the withdrawal of the monsoon from the city. Monsoon withdrawal is generally retrospective because the changing weather pattern and associated activity need to be observed for a few days. The cessation of rains from 09th October onward may prepare the grounds for monsoon withdrawal anytime around 11th October.
