El Niño inches closer, warmer winters ahead

Winters in Delhi

Slowly and steadily, weather conditions are getting favourable for the arrival of El Niño. The Pacific Ocean continues to heat with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) settling above average across most parts.

In fact, for the last two consecutive weeks, SSTs have been settling above zero-degree mark. Particularly, in Nino 3.4 region, which is a deciding factor for declaring El Niño. Let us have a look at the recent Nino Index (in °C):\


According to Skymet Weather, almost 90% of all the weather models across the globe are predicting 80% probability of formation of El Niño conditions during the Winters 2018-19 and into spring 2019 with 50%-60% probability.

Thereafter, it is showing signs of receding and possibly it could turn out into a devolving El Niño during the Southwest Monsoon 2019. We must say that devolving is not harmful as compared to evolving one, but the threat of abnormality cannot be ruled out.

According to weathermen, there are still six to eight months to go for Monsoon and thus, it needs to be observed closely. As we have reiterated earlier, El Niño conditions do not follow any rule book and behaves differently every time. The latest example to this theory being the Northeast Monsoon 2018.

Usually there is a notion that Northeast Monsoon gives a normal or above normal performance during the El Niño years. However, 2018 saw Northeast Monsoon failing with high rainfall deficiency, despite the presence of evolving El Niño conditions.

But one thing which is following the pattern is ongoing winter season. We generally witness warm winters during El Niño and that is what is happening at present. Winters 2018 have been mild so far, with actual winter chill being still far away to be seen.

Image Credits – Livemint

Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com

Weather on Twitter
In #Rajasthan due to weather activities, some relief is expected from the #hot and #dry weather conditions in the r… t.co/lGwM8nCp6F
Tuesday, April 23 21:15Reply
पंजाब का साप्ताहिक मौसम पूर्वानुमान (23 से 29 अप्रैल) t.co/2UTFFOf1Nu
Tuesday, April 23 21:00Reply
Weather Forecast April 24 t.co/T3KTEkLuq9
Tuesday, April 23 20:45Reply
It seems that the wait for season’s maiden #cyclonic storm is going to end soon. t.co/8bsl07Wb5d #cyclonefani
Tuesday, April 23 20:30Reply
Rising sea levels will become a big problem for the city of #Chennai in less than a century from now. t.co/0xu9DdpdcP
Tuesday, April 23 20:00Reply
ओड़ीशा, छत्तीसगढ़, तेलंगाना, आंध्रा तथा कर्नाटक के कुछ भागों में गरज के साथ बारिश की संभावना t.co/bFnqqpbHkw
Tuesday, April 23 19:15Reply
24 अप्रैल का मौसम पूर्वानुमान t.co/NVA4PUrKRF
Tuesday, April 23 19:00Reply
#Puducherry, the French escapade of India t.co/vIyEtfBloI
Tuesday, April 23 18:56Reply
The northern districts of #Punjab like Pathankot, #Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Jalandhar, #Ludhiana and #Chandigarh might… t.co/NpHWJ6WpLu
Tuesday, April 23 18:30Reply
RT @Mpalawat: Both observatories of #Delhi have crossed 40 degree today. #Palam recorded highest of the season with a #Maximum of 42.5 degr…
Tuesday, April 23 18:27Reply

latest news

Skymet weather

Download the Skymet App

Our app is available for download so give it a try