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El Niño inches closer, warmer winters ahead

El Niño inches closer, warmer winters ahead

04:30 PM

Winters in Delhi

Slowly and steadily, weather conditions are getting favourable for the arrival of El Niño. The Pacific Ocean continues to heat with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) settling above average across most parts.

In fact, for the last two consecutive weeks, SSTs have been settling above zero-degree mark. Particularly, in Nino 3.4 region, which is a deciding factor for declaring El Niño. Let us have a look at the recent Nino Index (in °C):\

Capture

According to Skymet Weather, almost 90% of all the weather models across the globe are predicting 80% probability of formation of El Niño conditions during the Winters 2018-19 and into spring 2019 with 50%-60% probability.

Thereafter, it is showing signs of receding and possibly it could turn out into a devolving El Niño during the Southwest Monsoon 2019. We must say that devolving is not harmful as compared to evolving one, but the threat of abnormality cannot be ruled out.

According to weathermen, there are still six to eight months to go for Monsoon and thus, it needs to be observed closely. As we have reiterated earlier, El Niño conditions do not follow any rule book and behaves differently every time. The latest example to this theory being the Northeast Monsoon 2018.

Usually there is a notion that Northeast Monsoon gives a normal or above normal performance during the El Niño years. However, 2018 saw Northeast Monsoon failing with high rainfall deficiency, despite the presence of evolving El Niño conditions.

But one thing which is following the pattern is ongoing winter season. We generally witness warm winters during El Niño and that is what is happening at present. Winters 2018 have been mild so far, with actual winter chill being still far away to be seen.

Image Credits – Livemint

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