Weather in South India has been unusually dry till now. Though there has been some Monsoon rain in the region, it is not good enough to cover up the deficit that most parts of the region are facing. The ill effects of El Nino on Monsoon in India are well known by now and we do not want to reiterate it further. So without stating the reasons for a weak Monsoon surge once again, we forecast the weather in South India till Sunday.
Karnataka and Kerala: In the last one week, rain has been confined to these two states. Last week there was heavy Monsoon showers of over 50 mm across many cities in coastal Karnataka and Kerala but it has reduced since Monday. Rain figures from last 24 hours are: Kochi 18 mm, Punalur 13 mm, Madikeri 11 mm, Agumbe and Kottayam 8 mm, Kannur 3 mm, Honavar 1.5 mm and Kochikode 1.3 mm. Capital cities Thiruvananthapuram and Bangalore remained dry.
Last week due to good showers along the west coast, rain deficit had reduced considerably, though currently it still stands at around 25% (Kerala coast) and 14% (Karnataka coast). The interiors of Karnataka are however, reeling under much tougher conditions as rain deficit here is over 40%.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain may pick along coastal Karnataka and Kerala once again, but it will still not be as strong as it is expected to be. The increase is likely from Saturday, when the Monsoon surge is likely to strengthen. This Monsoon current may also extend up to Goa and Mumbai where light patchy rain may occur after the longest and driest spell in June.
Andhra Pradesh: With a persisting heat wave, the Monsoon season has been rather hot than rainy in Andhra Pradesh. Weather records show maximums have risen by a whopping five to eight degrees, exceeding 42⁰C. On Tuesday Bapatla recorded 42.3⁰C, Kakinada 42⁰C, Visakhapatnam 42⁰C, Machilipatnam 41.6⁰C and Vijawada 41.4⁰C as the maximum temperatures.
Last year, after Southwest Monsoon hit the state the maximums were seen settling in the range of 34⁰C to 36⁰C. Coastal cities of Andhra Pradesh were cooler with day temperature recording in the high twenties.
However, there is some good news for Andhra Pradesh as the weather is likely to change and become rainy soon. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain may begin in Telangana, Seemandhra, where drought like situation is being witnessed right now, and could also reach up to Central India, i.e. parched states of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada. Rain could commence after 48 hours due to a weather system (cyclonic circulation) in the Bay of Bengal.
Tamil Nadu: The state lies in the rain shadow region and receives little rain during the Southwest Monsoon season, a time when all three neighbouring states are getting drenched in rain. But this year it has been quite the opposite. We mentioned in our earlier articles how Chennai has had excess monsoon rain in June due to multiple systems (troughs) that formed along the Tamil Nadu coast. However, in the next couple of days weather in the state is expected to become dry, with maximums sustaining around 40⁰C, which is two to three degrees above normal.
