Southwest Monsoon 2019 has been sluggish and slow so far. In fact, this system is possibly one of the poorest in terms of Advancement. Usually, by June 5, Monsoon does make an appearance over Northeast India, but Monsoon covered most parts of those regions only yesterday. Southwest Monsoon over the Peninsular India is also way far behind the schedule.
Usually, the drivers of Monsoon are systems in the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon systems do form in the Arabian Sea as well, but they do more harm than good. Rains are seen due to these systems but the moment they move away, they end up causing deficiencies of a high order.
The upside is that a system in the form of a Low Pressure Area is likely to form in Northwest Bay of Bengal around June 20. The system is not likely to be a very strong one as such, but rains will be seen in the central parts including Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra where deficiency does persist.
The system in the Bay will come up during the next 24 hours becoming more marked, a Cyclonic Circulation on June 19 off the Odisha Coast in Northwest Bay of Bengal. The system will not stay for long and move partly over land and sea. Moving inland, the system will be seen over Odisha and adjoining parts of Andhra Pradesh giving good rains over both the states.
States of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal may see rains while good showers are also expected over Telangana and Karnataka.
This system will be instrumental in advancing the Monsoon over Central and Peninsular India. Another system may come up in the Bay during the fag end of June.
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